Emission pathways and climate goals

After setting long-term climate goals, one needs to estimate emission pathways and emission budgets consistent with these climate goals. With a particular focus on 1.5 and 2°C pathways, we evaluate a wide range of emission pathways consistent with climate goals and explore the various strategies to bring emissions down globally and regionally.

Publications

A number of the latest generation climate models (CMIP6) project greater future warming than previously assessed, but drawing conclusions about the implications for emission reduction targets is premature. This briefing looks at what could be behind these results and what this means for near-term emissions reductions and the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature limit.  
The commonly agreed metric to aggregate emissions and removals of greenhouse gases under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement is the Global Warming Potential with a 100-year time-horizon (GWP100). Since the Agreement was adopted, new scientific concepts emerged, such as GWP*. This briefing looks at the pitfalls of applying this new metric.  
Europe, North America and parts of Asia can expect not just more intense but also longer lasting periods of heat, drought and rain during summer as the planet warms, worsening impacts on health and agriculture. The study, published in journal Nature Climate Change, also shows that limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in line with the Paris Agreement would largely avoid these additional impacts.  
Highly seasonal water supplies from the Himalayan watersheds of Jhelum, Kabul and upper Indus basin are critical for managing the world's largest contiguous irrigation system of the Indus basin and its dependent agrarian economy of Pakistan. Here, we assess changes in the contrasting hydrological regimes of these Himalayan watersheds, and subsequent water availability under the Paris Agreement 2015 targets that aim of limiting the mean global warming to 1.5 °C, and further, well below 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels.  

Projects

IMPACT is a cross-cutting, multi-faceted project that aims to strengthen the connections between the scientific assessments of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to help enable access to finance and help Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) implement concrete projects.  
The Paris Agreement commits all countries to take ambitious steps to guarantee a low carbon future. This requires individual national governments to submit more ambitious emission reduction targets. In support of this urgent need to translate global trajectories to be in line with the Paris Agreement, this project, founded by the IKEA Foundation, shows how a group of countries, across all regions and development spectrum can update their NDCs to be in line with the Paris climate goals.  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.  
This project aims to establish a scientifically robust and transparent link between the latest climate-economic science data and the Climate Bonds Initiative’s project universe. The Framework's goal is to ensure that project categories certified under the Climate Bond Standards represent mitigation actions that current climate science finds most relevant in order to keep global warming below 2° C. Project period: 2015 - 2016.