This study provides projections of future governance in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The study finds that under a ‘rocky road’ scenario, 30% of the global population would live in countries with weak governance in 2050, while under a ‘green road’ scenario, weak governance would be almost entirely overcome. On the basis of the governance pathways, the study also estimates the capacity of countries to adapt to climate change.
Costs and benefits of adaptation
In order to assess feasible adaptation options the analysis of costs and benefits is crucial. Adaptation costs mainly refer to making society more resilient to climate change and the benefits consist of avoided damage by adjusting to climate change.
The first UNEPAdaptation Gap Report serves as a preliminary assessment of global adaptation gaps in finance, technology and knowledge, and lays out a framework for future work on better defining and bridging these gaps.
Africa is anticipated to be confronted with the severest adverse effects of human-induced climate change, compared to most other regions of the world, due to a combination of particularly severe projected impacts and relatively low adaptive capacity (e.g. IPCC AR4, World Bank 2013). The need for adaptation is expected to be high in Africa, especially in light of the existing deficit in adaptation to current climate variability and climate change. However, under any scenario of global mitigation and strong regional adaptation efforts, considerable adverse effects of climate change on Africa will remain, resulting in loss and damage.
The project aims to investigate how changes in land cover and land management can help to meet the mitigation and adaptation objectives of the Paris Agreement, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. The project partners findings will be disseminated through a number of tools, events and products and by closely involving stakeholders and policy-makers, with the aim to support sustainable land use decision-making.
The EmBARK-project investigates time scales and possible trajectories of socio-economic transformation processes and analyse their relevance as potential barriers to adaptation to climate change. An improved understanding of the temporal dynamics of such barriers is key in developing a more realistic understanding of future climate impacts and for scientifically robust assessment of future climate related loss and damage.
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.